Wednesday, Jan 17, 2007, The Times Leader
There’s no way to know what chance you have of winning on specific machine or spin.
By TOM AVRIL Philadelphia Inquirer Staff Writer
See how slot machines work
BENSALEM - Gerrie Zdunkczyk pressed a button and watched the three wheels spin, the seductive lights of the slot machine reflected in her eyeglasses as she sat in a padded chair.
The first wheel stopped spinning, displaying the image of a purple bar. Then the second wheel stopped - another bar. And the third wheel … A blank. But tantalizingly, just one space away, she saw the third bar she needed.
“If that bar had come down here, I would’ve won something,” she said last week, in her first visit to the new slots parlor at PhiladelphiaPark Casino.
Maybe not. Sure, it looked as if the third wheel just ran out of gas when it got close to the winning symbol. But in reality, it stopped there because an internal computer told it to - a result randomly determined when she pressed the button, before the wheels started spinning.
It’s just one way that slot machines - long a fixture in Atlantic City and now in Pennsylvania, with a third parlor to open this month in Chester - are not always what they seem.
For years, the colorful devices have been computerized, with a dizzying array of outcomes to entice the gambler. Often, the odds of hitting a particular symbol vary from one reel to the next, allowing game designers to give users the impression they are close to a winning combination when they are not.
States require that machines pay back a certain amount over the long term - at least 85 percent of what’s wagered in Pennsylvania’s case, 83 percent in New Jersey’s. But if you want to know the exact chance of getting three cherries or some other jackpot, you’re out of luck.
With the exception of certain games - such as video poker, considered a slot machine though it simulates a deck of cards - the odds are secret.
Critics say slots mislead gamblers and foster addiction.
“They think they’re getting close to winning, they’re about to win, they’d better stay on the machine,” said Roger Horbay, a consultant and expert on problem gambling.
Industry officials deny deceiving their customers.
“The outcomes of the games are random,” said Ed Rogich, spokesman for the Nevada-based IGT, which made the Double Diamond slot machine that Zdunkczyk was using.
The industry doesn’t disclose the odds, he said, because state rules don’t require it.
Still, states impose strict rules on the machines.
In Pennsylvania, a team of statisticians, computer scientists and engineers puts each machine through its paces, calculating its theoretical performance, then making sure the device actually plays that way.
The head of the operation is Richard Williamson, a veteran casino investigator whom the state Gaming Control Board hired away from New Jersey.
Williamson’s staff ensures that the 85 percent rule is followed and that the machines aren’t too “volatile” - that is, they reach that threshold within 10 million plays.
Statistician Nimish Purohit uses a spreadsheet to run the numbers for each machine. Earlier this month, he calculated that one machine had a theoretical payout of 85.9 percent.
In practice, most slots are designed to be more generous - often above 90 percent - to keep gamblers playing. But the state does not allow payouts above 100 percent; otherwise, the government would have no casino profits to tax.
So in the long run - and often in the short run - the gambler always loses. With the exception of certain skill games such as video poker, there is no real strategy, said Anthony Curtis, president of lasvegasadvisor.com, a gambling Web site.
“It’s blind luck,” Curtis said. “Any person who plays a slot machine needs to go into it looking at it as an entertainment expense, just as they would look at going to the movies.”
In interviews last week at PhiladelphiaPark with half a dozen gamblers, most seemed pretty savvy. Zdunkczyk, a retiree from Churchville, agreed that strategies didn’t work. I have no scheme, no plan, she said, playing a Double Diamond.
“Yet some fall victim to the gambler’s fallacy - the idea that if a machine hasn’t paid out money for a while, it is due, ” said Bill Eadington, director of a gambling study institute at the University of Nevada, Reno.
“If I feel like I’ve played it long enough, I’ll start doubling up on my bets,” said Rebecca Bock, 60, a Northeast Philadelphia resident playing All That Glitters.
That won’t help.
Slots are simply a more complicated version of flipping a coin. If you get 10 heads in a row, you are not any more likely to get tails on the next flip. The chance of tails is the same as when you started: 50 percent.
So can you get rich on the slots?
Fat chance.
On the Web
Gamblers wagered more than $250 million on slot machines at Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs in less than two months. According to the state gaming control board, wagers totaled $251,561,284 from the mid-November opening through Jan. 7. Payouts totaled $226,389,004, leaving 10 percent or $25,172,280 with the casino operator, the Mohegan Tribal Gaming Authority. Daily revenue per machine has run well over $400 at times, handily beating pre-opening estimates and a higher rate than PhiladelphiaPark Casino, which opened in mid-December.
For a complete explanation on how slot machines determine payouts, go to www.timesleader.com .
Copyright 2007 The Times Leader.
